HurricaneScore

Methodology

How HurricaneScore risk scores are computed: data sources, modeling approach, and limitations.

HurricaneScore publishes hurricane risk scores at neighborhood resolution across the US coast. Every score on this site is computed by PerilScore using the same data layer used by insurance and risk management professionals.

Data sources

We start from public scientific records. Every input is auditable, and we don’t use proprietary or paywalled data.

NOAA HURDAT (Atlantic hurricane database): decades of historical hurricane tracks, intensities, and landfalls.
NOAA Storm Events Database: recorded storm impacts at the local level, including damage and casualties.
National Hurricane Center best track: post-season analysis of every named storm, including wind fields and pressure profiles.
NOAA bathymetry and coastline data: used for distance-to-coast and storm-surge proxy scoring.

Modeling approach

We run the historical record through physics-based probability models that reflect how hurricanes actually behave: wind field structure, track persistence, intensity decay over land, and storm-surge potential by coastline geometry. The result is a single 0 to 10 probability score at each neighborhood-scale sample point (about 5 km²).

Output metrics include long-run storm frequency, expected wind speed at the 1-in-10, 1-in-50, and 1-in-100 year return periods, and a storm-surge proxy where coastline geometry is relevant.

Resolution

Scores are computed at neighborhood resolution: approximately 5 km² sample points across the contiguous US coastline and inland exposure zones. This is much finer than the county-level averages most public hurricane data provides.

Update cadence

The model is refreshed annually following the end of Atlantic hurricane season (December), incorporating the prior season’s storms into the historical record. Major model updates are versioned and disclosed.

Validation

Models are evaluated against held-out historical seasons and benchmarked against published reference datasets where available. The exact validation protocol is documented in the PerilScore technical papers.

Limitations

Forecast boundary. HurricaneScore reflects long-run probability from the historical record. For active storm guidance, use NOAA and local emergency sources.
Property-specific detail. Scores reflect a neighborhood-scale sample point. For a property-specific score that incorporates construction, wind mitigation, and protection class, use the free PerilScore app.
Climate change is partially modeled. A 2050 climate-adjusted wind delta is included as a separate proxy field; it is not blended into the headline score.

Attribution

Risk scores powered by PerilScore. Visit perilscore.com for the full platform, API access, and commercial-use licensing.

Methodology

Public data. Real science. No black boxes.

Every score is computed from decades of public weather records using physics-based probability modeling. It's the same approach used by insurance and risk management professionals.

Decades of public weather data: Hurricane tracks, storm intensities, fire perimeters, hail reports, all drawn from public scientific archives. We don't use proprietary data. You can audit every input.
Physics-based probability modeling: Scores reflect how the actual peril behaves: wind fields, fire spread, ground shaking, and storm tracks. The model keeps the physics visible instead of flattening every place into a broad average.
Used by professionals: The same PerilScore data layer is used by insurance and risk management professionals. We publish it here so anyone can find authoritative risk numbers for their location.

Frequently asked questions

Where does the hurricane risk score come from?

Every score is computed from decades of public weather data (hurricane tracks, intensities, and landfalls) using physics-based probability modeling. It’s the same data layer insurance and risk management professionals use.

Is the score a model estimate or actual history?

It’s a physics-based probability score derived from the historical record. We don’t smooth, interpolate, or guess. We let the actual storm record drive the number.

Does this number apply to my exact address?

The score reflects the location you searched. For a property-specific score that incorporates construction, occupancy, and protection factors, use the free PerilScore app.

How often is the data refreshed?

Snapshot dates appear on every location page. The historical record is updated as new storm data becomes available.

Why is this hurricane risk score different from FEMA or NOAA?

FEMA flood maps and NOAA storm reports describe regulatory boundaries and recorded events. PerilScore translates the full historical record into a probability score designed for risk modeling rather than emergency planning.

Want the full picture for a specific property?

The scores on this site show the representative hurricane layer for a local area. Enter a street address to add building age, construction type, roof details, occupancy, surroundings, and property-level context.